With 15 matches left to play in the league stage of IPL 2023, there remain nearly 33,000 possible combinations of results. TOI looks at each of these possibilities to calculate the chances of individual teams making it to the playoffs. As things stand, two teams are almost certain to make the play-offs, one other is a strong favourite to do so and none of the others are as yet definitely out. Also any of them barring DC can in fact tie for top spot.
IPL POINTS TABLE | SCHEDULE & RESULTS
TOI’s Shankar Raghuraman does the number crunching to determine how the teams stand as of Thursday, May 11 morning:
1. GT are already certain to finish in one of the top three slots in terms of points. The lowest they can finish is tied third and their chances of being sole leader are 73.5%. It is however still theoretically possible that they miss out on NRR after finishing in a tie with more than one other team for the third spot
2. CSK’s already high chances of making it to the top four on points have now reached 98.6% after Wednesday’s win with nearly 32,300 of the remaining 32,768 combinations of results putting them in that bracket either singly or jointly
3. Currently in third place, MI’s chances of making the top four on points now stand at 76.1% or a little better than three in four, though this includes situations in which NRR could come into play
4. Despite being in fourth spot currently, LSG are more likely than not to miss out with a 44.7% chance of getting into the top four and even that includes scenarios in which they are only joint fourth, some of them with multiple teams
5. Currently in fifth place, RR’s chances of making the top four on points are just a bit better than one in three, or 35.9% and once again that includes scenarios with two or more teams tied for the fourth spot
6. KKR are now in sixth spot, but their chances of finishing in the top four in terms of points, either singly or jointly, are the same as RR’s at 35.9%
7. PK too have just a little more than a one in three chance of finishing among the top four on points – singly or jointly. To be precise they have a 34.1% chance of achieving that
8. Tuesday’s loss to MI has severely dented RCB’s chances of finishing in the top four, which are down to 34.5%, and even this includes situations of teams tied on points for the last spot
9. Ninth placed SRH have less than a one in four (23.4%) chance of finishing among the top four on points, but this tournament has been so even that they can still finish tied for the top spot if they win all their remaining games
10. Languishing at or near the bottom for most of the tournament, DC can still make it to the play-offs but their chances of making the top four are no more than 6.9%. Even if they win all their remaining matches, they can at best tie for third or fourth spot and most of those involve multiple teams
How we calculate these probabilities:
We look at all 32,768 possible combinations of results with 15 matches remaining. We assume that for any given match the chances of either side winning are even. We then look at how many of the combinations put each team in one of the top four slots by points. That gives us our probability number. To take a specific example, of the 32,768 possible result combinations, GT finishes sole first in 24,090 of them. That translates to a 73.5% chance of being the topper without NRR coming into play. We do not take net run rates or no results (NR) into consideration because predicting those in advance is impossible.